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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-15T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18853/-1
CME Note: The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-19T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18857/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-15T14:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=343.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2022-01-15T23:41Z
2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=34.0, Speed=416.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-01-16T02:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-19T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-19T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Lead Time: 55.55 hour(s)
Difference: -6.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-01-16T15:31Z
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