CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-01-15T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18853/-1
CME Note: The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-19T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18857/1
Model Inputs:
2022-01-15T14:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=17.0, Speed=343.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2022-01-15T23:41Z
2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=34.0, Speed=416.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-01-16T02:08Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-19T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-19T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220115_234100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 55.55 hour(s)
Difference: -6.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2022-01-16T15:31Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement